Pertinent information: What to look out for when reading any Chart.
Here a few pointers on how you can read a chart and a tip: try practice looking at forex charts with each of these points in mind. You won’t be sorry:- When you buy a currency pair, that is, you long the position, look for the chart of that currency pair to go up, to make a profit on the trade. For this to happen, the base currency must strengthen against the terms currency. (Remember lesson 2?)
- When you sell the currency pair to short the position, look for the chart of that currency pair to go down, to make a profit on the trade. For this to happen the base currency must weaken against the terms currency.
- Look to the time frame displayed on the chart to ensure that the chart has the correct time frame for your analysis. Its advisable to set up your charts with the correct time frames and indicators on them for the system you're trading. You can then save and reuse this layout. Bear in mind then that various trading systems will use multiple time frames to determine the entry of a trade. A system may, for example use a 5 hour and a 15 minute chart to determine the overall trend of the currency pair and could by use a variety of indicators (which we’ll learn more about in a future lesson) such as momentum, MACD, or support and resistance lines. The same system could then use a 10 minute chart to determine the actual entry by looking for a rise from a temporary dip.
- On the bottom of forex charts, the times shown are set to the particular time zone, which could be GMT, New York time, or others. Should any major economic announcement be made you will need to convert the time of that announcement to your chart and local time to know when you need to trade. Here if you can have a world clock available on your computer desktop in order to convert the different time zones.
- The BID price (as opposed to the Ask price) is the price displayed on most Forex Charts.
- A price is always quoted with a bid and an ask (or offer). If you buy, you will be buying at the ask, which is the higher of the 2 prices in the spread, and conversely when you sell, you will sell at the bid, which is the lower of the two prices in the spread.
- If you use the chart price to determine an entry or exit and an order to sell is placed, provided there’s no slippage, this will be the sale price. (Ahh.. the previous lessons are coming back to us now)
- However should you place an order to buy when the chart price is the same price, then you'll actually buy at a higher price. In future lessons when we examine platforms and systems in greater depth you’ll learn that they will often determine whether the orders will be placed according to the chart price or whether you need to add a buffer when buying or selling.
- In later lessons and through experience you’ll learn that on many platforms, when stop orders are placed (to buy if the price rises above a certain price, or sell when the price falls below a certain price) you can select either "stop if bid" or "stop if offered".
- If you are using candlestick charts, (which we will delve into below) check whether the times on your forex charts correspond to when the candle actually opens or when the candle actually closes. Various charting software differ from each other in this respect. This will be important in that should you wish to trade major economic announcements, by entering a trade based on the movements that happen after the announcement, or by exiting a trade before the announcement you need to avoid being stopped out and to do this you will have to be precise (to the minute!) as these trades are performed according to what happens during that minute immediately after the announcement, and not by the candle that will only show afterwards!
How to forcast Forex.
Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are the two main methods of analysis.Both, although vastly different, can be useful as forecast tools, either on their own or combined, to predict a price or movement.
Technical analysis
The study of the effect of market movement.Price action is seen to reflect all the known information. Fear and Greed or expectations and emotions cause Buyers and Sellers to move the markets and as a consequence the Markets fluctuate. It’s important to remember that actual price may not reflect the underlying value.
By studying charts of past market action, the Technical analyst has a method of predicting price movements and future market trends.
The technical analyst asks what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen.
Charts are then created as a primary tool from analyzed data derived from studying the price of instruments and the volume of trading. The charts can assist experienced analysts to follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.
Three essential principles are followed by the technical analyst:
- Market action discounts everything! The actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it.
- Prices move in trends! Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior. Patterns allow for a high probability that expected results will be produced and some will repeat themselves on a consistent basis.
- History will repeat itself! History has shown that the manner in which many patterns are repeated can lead one to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.
- Indicators (oscillators)for example:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100.
Stochastic oscillator: This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines.
- The Number Theory for example:
Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third.
Gann numbers: Angles in charts used to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes.
- Waves
The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence.
- Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place
- Trends (following moving averages).
A trend refers to the direction of prices over a period.
Some common technical tools (which we’ll also learn more about in future lessons):
The Coppock Curve: an investment tool used for predicting bear market lows.
The DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) used to determine whether or not a currency pair is trending.
Fundamental analysis
This is the study of the cause of market movementThis is a method of forecasting future price movements or where a currency should be trading based on a macro or strategic assessment of economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument.
Factors could include: Supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and government policy, economic condition of the country that the currency represents, monetary policy, and other "fundamental" elements. It’s worth mentioning that many profitable trades are made moments prior to, or shortly after, major economic announcements.
Types of Forex Charts
Let’s take a look at the three most popular types of charts:The Line chart, the Bar chart and our soon to be favorite: the Candlestick chart.
The Line Chart
A line from one closing price to the next closing price produces a simple line chart. A general picture then emerges of price movement of a currency pair over a period of time.Bar Charts
A bar chart shows opening and closing prices simultaneously, as well as the highs and lows. (Bar charts are also referred to as “OHLC” charts, because they indicate the Open, the High, the Low, and the Close for that particular currency)Bear in mind that a bar is simply one segment of time, whether it is one day, one week, or one hour. Always be sure to understand what time frame a bar is referencing.
The lowest traded price for that time period is shown at the bottom of the vertical bar.
The highest price paid for that time period is shown at the top of the vertical bar.
The vertical bar indicates the currency pair’s trading range as a whole.
The horizontal hash on the left side of the bar is the opening price.
The horizontal hash on the right side of the bar is the closing price.